Betting Steelers-Chargers: Picks for Justin Herbert, DK Metcalf and more
Sunday’s Week 10 NFL slate wraps up with the Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the Los Angeles Chargers on “Sunday Night Football.”
The Chargers have won two straight, including last week’s road win over the Tennessee Titans. Pittsburgh snapped a two-game skid with a win over the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday.
Editor’s Picks
1 Related
The Chargers are 3.5-point favorites for Thursday’s game.
Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado and Eric Moody offer their picks, prop plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET Sportsbook. 
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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers
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NBC |
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LAC -3.5 (+110) |
O/U 45.5 (-105/-115) |
ML: LAC -150, PIT +130 |
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Opened: LAC -3.5 (-105) |
O/U 45.5 |
FPI: LAC by 4.8 (62.9% to win) |
Game bets
Chargers’ team total OVER 23.5 (-130)
Maldonado: Los Angeles leads the league in third-down conversion rate and yards-per-play differential, and this is a matchup where both should show. Pittsburgh’s defense still leans on turnovers to mask inefficiency, but when the Steelers don’t get one, they are bottom five in the league in points per drive allowed. The Chargers, meanwhile, have a plus-88-yard margin per game on their opponents, and with Justin Herbert’s passing volume and red zone precision, they should sustain drives, even with a shaky run game.
Week 10 picks
Notable player props, bets
Justin Herbert Over 0.5 INTs (-115)
Loza: Herbert has thrown at least one pick in six of nine games this season. He has registered four INTs over his past three outings. Injuries to the offensive line and a questionable game script have forced Herbert to make riskier or more aggressive downfield throws that have led to takeaways. Meanwhile, the Steelers are coming off a dominant effort versus the Indianapolis Colts, picking off three of Daniel Jones’ passes (Jones had just three INTs heading into Week 9) during the seven-point upset. Assuming the Steelers build off their Week 9 performance, noting Joe Alt’s absence for the Bolts’ offensive line, and the fact that the spread on this game is just 2.5 points, Herbert is likely to make at least one miscalculation.
DK Metcalf Over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
Moody: Metcalf has cleared this line in only four of eight games, but there’s reason for optimism here. The Chargers run one of the highest rates of zone coverage in the league, and Metcalf has performed significantly better against zone-heavy defenses this season. For example, he posted a season-high 126 yards against the Minnesota Vikings, who also lean heavily on zone. By comparison, some of his quieter games came against man-heavy defenses such as the Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers and Colts. This matchup sets up much better for him.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their past six games.
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The Chargers have covered five straight prime-time games (6-2 ATS under Jim Harbaugh, 3-0 ATS this season). The Steelers are 0-2 ATS in prime-time games this season.
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In the AFC North, the 5-3 Steelers (+135) are the second choice to win the division, behind the 3-5 Ravens (-140).
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The 6-3 Chargers (+350) are the third choice in the AFC West, behind the 5-4 Chiefs (+125) 7-2 Broncos (+145).
