First bets: Early picks for NFL Week 12 and college football Week 13
There are six teams on a bye in Week 12 in the NFL, which means there are 13 games on the slate. The week kicks off Thursday night when the Pittsburgh Steelers make the short trip to take on the rival Cleveland Browns.
Sunday features 11 games, including the San Francisco 49ers traveling to face the Green Bay Packers in a game that’s important for both teams’ playoff hopes.
Week 12 wraps up with the only matchup on this week’s schedule in which both teams have winning records: Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers on “Monday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC).
On the college side, there are a pair of games pitting ranked teams against each other — Indiana at Ohio State and Army at Notre Dame — both of which carry plenty of intrigue as it pertains to the College Football Playoff.
Our team takes an early look at the odds to find value before lines move later in the week.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Seth Walder’s first bet: Arizona Cardinals (+1) at Seattle Seahawks
Going into Sunday, FPI liked the Cardinals by a full two points against the Seahawks in Week 12. Does Seattle’s upset victory over the 49ers justify a 3-point move? I doubt it.
While it was a redemptive performance from Geno Smith and the Seahawks to keep their season afloat, if I’m betting on one quarterback in this matchup it’s the one who is playing the best ball of his career: Kyler Murray. The Cardinals QB is third in the league in QBR and is leading an above-average offense. I’ll roll with them, especially getting a point.
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Los Angeles Chargers (13-1) to win AFC
Last week: Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) over Baltimore Ravens. Line closed at Steelers (+3.5). Steelers won, 18-16.
Finally, a big test for the Chargers defense and they passed with flying colors in beating Cincinnati, 34-27, on Sunday night. Jim Harbaugh’s Bolts are now +75 in point differential, which ranks fourth in the NFL behind only Detroit, Buffalo and Philadelphia. And with a record of 7-3, only Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Detroit have a better record.
This team is built to be a tough out in the playoffs, with a battle-tested formula that features a blunt rushing attack and a swarming defense. Don’t be shocked if the Chargers upset the Ravens in Los Angeles on Monday night, adjusting this price in the process.
Andre Snellings’ first bet: Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts over 50.5 points
Last week: Green Bay Packers (-6) over Chicago Bears. Line closed at Packers (-6.5). Packers won, 20-19.
The Colts are fairly unremarkable on both sides of the ball, scoring 21.5 PPG and allowing 22.7 — both within a point of league average (22.5 PPG). So, this prediction is based heavily on the more dominant Lions and their expected values.
The Lions’ offense is a machine right now. They lead the NFL in scoring on the season at 33.6 PPG, but in their seven games since the calendar flipped to October they’ve upped that to a whopping 39.1 PPG. And while their defense is strong, too, the Lions and their opponents have combined to average 56.9 PPG during that seven-game span, hitting 56 or more points five times. The Colts are just average enough that this game projects to look like a typical Lions game: high scoring with the Lions in control.
Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Last week: Washington Commanders (+3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles. Line closed at Commanders (+4.5). Eagles won, 26-18.
This line is in no-man’s land as far as key numbers are concerned in the NFL. With the way that the Broncos and Bo Nix are playing, I can easily imagine the market moving in favor of Denver. If so, we reach a key number of 6. I would like to get in front of that.
The Raiders are a feisty team, but they’re not that good. Although this is officially a home game for the Raiders, I imagine the Broncos contingent in Las Vegas will outnumber the Silver and Black. The Broncos fan base is legit and this is easy travel.
Denver has a defense that will travel, too, and Nix is playing as well or better than any rookie QB right now. I trust the Broncos to take care of business, and I want to get them at a number south of a full touchdown.
Pamela Maldonado’s first bet: Army-Notre Dame under 44.5
Last week: Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets UNDER 44. Line closed at 43.5. Colts won, 28-27.
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Army’s run-heavy offense, which leads the nation with a 87% rush play rate and 330 rushing yards per game, will control the clock and limit possessions. This ball-control strategy naturally suppresses scoring opportunities for both teams.
Army’s defense has been stout, allowing only 11 points per game, second fewest in the nation, and a mere 71 rushing yards per game (first in the FBS). Notre Dame’s offense, while potent, may struggle to find its rhythm against Army’s time-consuming approach.
The Black Knights’ ability to limit opposing rushing attacks (2.9 yards per rush allowed, tied for fourth) could force Notre Dame into a one-dimensional game plan. Expect a methodical, ground-based game that keeps the total low.
