NFL playoff picture projections: Updated chances to make the postseason, win divisions

We’re only through Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season. Yes, it’s very early. But we’re already taking a quick look at the playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LX. Which teams have the best chances to make the 14-team playoff field? Which still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get in?

We used ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl.

Here’s everything you need right now.

Last update: Sept. 30 at 12:30 p.m. ET

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AFC picture | NFC picture

Projecting the AFC playoff field

The AFC North race has been upended, as the Steelers are 3-1 and the Ravens are 1-3. While both teams are projected to be in the playoffs heading into Week 5, Pittsburgh’s defense has dominated with 10 takeaways. Meanwhile, the Ravens have forced only two turnovers. Baltimore is surely hoping to get its high-scoring offense on the field more.

After 1-2 starts, the Broncos and Patriots have seen their chances rise after wins over the Bengals and Panthers, respectively. New England quarterback Drake Maye and Denver quarterback Bo Nix are trying to avoid the sophomore slump, and so far, both have thrown seven touchdown passes, with Maye completing 74% of his passes.

Projecting the NFC playoff field

In the first game between two 3-0 teams since 2021, the Eagles came out on top against the Buccaneers and retained their status as NFC front-runners. The Lions are also strengthening their chances after three straight wins, with Jared Goff throwing seven touchdown passes over that span.

The Seahawks have put together an impressive first four weeks, reaching a 3-1 start with new quarterback Sam Darnold. While Seattle is in a tough division (all teams are .500 or better) and hosting Tampa Bay in its next matchup, the Seahawks rank sixth in scoring in the league with 111 points. That’s ahead of the Bucs and the rest of the NFC West.

NFL playoff schedule

Jan. 10-12, 2026: Wild-card round
Jan. 17-18: Divisional round
Jan. 25: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 8: Super Bowl LX (in Santa Clara, California)