Patriots' result will have big impact on the Jets' draft pick
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Rich Cimini, ESPN Staff Writer
FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — A look at what’s happening around the New York Jets:
1. When winning hurts: A meaningless season finale? Not exactly.
While the Jets are locked into third place in the AFC East, their draft position could swing dramatically based on the outcome of Sunday’s games. They could go as high as fifth or as low as 12th.
At 6-10, the Jets currently hold the eighth spot. If they beat the New England Patriots, and the Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders and Minnesota Vikings (all 7-9) lose, the Jets probably will drop to 11th, possibly 12th, based on the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker. Those teams, with the exception of the Vikings, have played significantly easier schedules than the Jets. That hurts the Jets in a tiebreaker situation.
If the Jets lose, and the New York Giants, Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans (all 5-11) win, they could jump as high as fifth — albeit unlikely. That fifth spot is critical for a team that needs an offensive tackle — i.e. the Jets. In some mock drafts, Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State) and Joe Alt (Notre Dame) — the consensus top tackles — are projected as top-five picks.
The Jets are most likely to wind up with the seventh pick, according to ESPN analytics. In that position, they should have a shot at one of the elite pass catchers not named Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State) — wide receivers Rome Odunze (Washington) and Malik Nabers (LSU) or tight end Brock Bowers (Georgia).
Some fans might want the Jets to tank for a higher draft pick, but the players certainly aren’t thinking that way. As quarterback Trevor Siemian said, “We’re going to be trying like hell to get (a win), by any means necessary.”
2. A QB gift? As much as they’d relish a victory over the New England Patriots, putting an end to a 15-game, head-to-head losing streak that has spanned three different head coaches, the Jets could put their hated rival in a position to draft a potential franchise quarterback.
The Patriots would finish 4-13, which might secure the No. 2 pick in the draft. Currently, they’re in the No. 3 position, fractionally behind the Washington Commanders in the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker. With the second pick, the quarterback-needy Patriots could draft USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye.
3. Bryce’s price: The Jets have 18 players eligible for free agency, and another four whose contracts will void — none more important than defensive end Bryce Huff (career-high eight sacks). A possible clue on his free-agent thoughts: He wants to be a full-time player, not just a pass-rushing specialist.
“I definitely want to be able find a scheme that sees me as an every-down player,” he told ESPN. “It gives me the opportunity to show that I can be a top-tier edge in this league in the run and in the pass. So that’s definitely something I’m going to be looking for.”
Huff added, “I know a lot of the narrative has been, ‘Oh, Bryce, he can’t stop the run.'” But he believes he was a “legitimate run stopper” in college and has the potential to be the same on the NFL level.
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The Jets have expanded Huff’s role, giving him 141 snaps on first down (up from 22 snaps last season), but they’re married to a rotational system that limits playing time. Statistically, the run defense suffers with Huff in the lineup — 5.3 yards per rush when he’s on the field, 3.6 yards when he’s not, per Next Gen Stats. That’s the largest differential among their defensive linemen. But because of his pass-rushing ability — a highly coveted trait — he will score a big pay day, perhaps somewhere in the $13 million to $15 million range per year.
Huff said he’d like to re-sign with the Jets, but added, “I feel like I still need to go wherever’s best for me personally, just because of how much work I put in. I feel like I owe it to myself to really reach my full potential as far as playing time and really reaching for (statistical) goals.”
It’ll be a fascinating negotiation, especially since the Jets already have Jermaine Johnson, John Franklin-Myers and Will McDonald under contract at defensive end.
4. “Big Ticket” free agent: Left tackle Mekhi Becton, also heading to free agency, is finishing up a bittersweet season. Statistically, it hasn’t been great. He has allowed 12 sacks, per Next Gen Stats, and has committed 12 penalties, second-most in the league among all players. But with Becton, it’s important to take a macro view when evaluating him. Because of knee injuries, this was his first season since 2020, his rookie year. He also had to switch positions on the fly. All things considered, he sees the year as a net positive.
“My year wasn’t what I mentally wanted it to be, (being a) dominant player and going to the Pro Bowl and being All-Pro and other stuff,” the former first-round pick told ESPN. “But I mean, s—, I missed two years of football. So the positive is I only missed one game this year. I played a full season, damn near. I’m happy with my season because I’ve been healthy throughout the whole season, so it’s a blessing for me.”
Becton said he’d like to return to the Jets, in part, because of the opportunity to play with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but the sense is they will have limited interest in re-signing him.
5. Farewell game? Other key players who will be free agents are safety Jordan Whitehead, defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson, special teamer Justin Hardee, kicker Greg Zuerlein and punter Thomas Morstead.
6. Saleh the survivor: Coach Robert Saleh will return next season — owner Woody Johnson said so recently — which puts him in a small fraternity: Coaches who didn’t get fired after beginning their tenure with three straight losing seasons. Very few owners have the patience to ride out the losing, which is why eight coaches since 1990 (not counting Saleh) fall into this category. The most recent: Gus Bradley (Jacksonville Jaguars, 2013-2016), who was fired during his fourth season.
Now you’re probably wondering: Has a coach ever made the playoffs after beginning with three straight losing years with the same team? The answer is yes. The last to do it was Bill Belichick, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. It seems like ancient history, but the current Patriots coach led the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs in 1994 after three sub-.500 years.
Prior to Belichick’s stint in Cleveland, it happened eight times in NFL history, dating to 1940. The list of coaches includes three Hall 0f Famers — Chuck Noll, Tom Landry and Weeb Ewbank, who did it with the Baltimore Colts and Jets. Saleh would join that group if he gets his team to the postseason in 2024.
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7. Did you know? Cornerback Sauce Gardner is one of six defensive players since 1970 to be selected a Pro Bowl starter in each of his first two seasons. The others: Lawrence Taylor, Derrick Thomas, Shawne Merriman, Von Miller and Micah Parsons. Pretty good company.
8. Iron Man: A hat tip to left guard Laken Tomlinson, who hasn’t missed a single offensive snap. If he carries that through Sunday, it will be five straight seasons of 100% playing time — a rarity. He credits a lot of his durability to his mentor, Hall of Fame tackle Jackie Slater. By coincidence, they hooked up several years ago. Training in Los Angeles one offseason, Tomlinson mentioned to his barber that he was looking for an offensive line guru to help maximize his potential. The barber mentioned Slater, also a customer. A meeting was arranged at a Starbucks. Tomlinson and Slater hit it off, and the training sessions began the next day. Said Tomlinson: “I wouldn’t be where I am without him.”
9. Oh, snap: It’s one of the ugliest parts of the Jets’ season — the amount of pre-snap penalties. They lead the league with 52 pre-snap penalties, including a league-high 31 false starts. Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett’s previous team, the Denver Broncos, committed the fourth-most pre-snap penalties in 2022. Coincidence?
10. The last word: “I don’t think I was ready for him to be as productive as he was in the passing game. I think that’s something that has added a whole dimension to things that we can do.” — Hackett on Breece Hall, who has 74 catches (one behind the New Orleans Saints’ Alvin Kamara for the NFL lead among running backs).
